Infometrics NZ's take on the latest Monthly Employment Indicators showed that filled job numbers were unchanged in February from January (seasonally adjusted).
This month-on-month change may be revised down to a decline as employment numbers tend to be revised down in the following release. The previously monthly rise in January of 0.3 percent was revised down to 0.1 percent (seasonally adjusted).
Filled jobs growth in primary industries prevented a decline in broader employment numbers as the sector saw a 1.0 percent rise from January. Filled jobs in goods-producing industries declined 0.3 percent from January, marking its thirteenth consecutive monthly decline in filled jobs, reaching a 4.1 percent annual fall. Filled jobs in service industries were unchanged, but down 0.8 percentpa from a year ago (all figures seasonally adjusted).
The industry with the largest annual decline in filled jobs was information media and telecommunications (-7.3 percent), although the decline narrowed for the third consecutive month after appearing to peak at -8.6 percent in November 2024. The construction industry's filled jobs have been lower than a year ago for eleven consecutive months, with the annual decline reaching 6.6 percent in February.
Job ads in February declined 3.9 percent from January (based on Infometrics seasonal adjustment of MBIE data). Although job ads have yet to register two consecutive monthly rises, they have mainly remained level since mid-2024.
A solid trend has yet to emerge in filled job numbers, with month-to-month changes moderate but volatile. This lack of a clear trend might continue over the next few months as job ads have stopped declining but remain low.
The annual decline in filled jobs was 1.6 percent pa in February, as all regions saw annual declines in filled job numbers. Filled job numbers in Otago declined for the first time in three months, falling 0.1 percent pa. The South Island saw a 0.5 percent pa decline in filled jobs, compared to a 1.7 percent pa decline in the North Island.
The downturn in the labour market has hit younger age groups the hardest. Declines in filled job numbers were led by 15 to 19-year-olds (-10 percent pa), followed by 25 to 29-year-olds (-5.1 percent pa), and 20 to 24-year-olds (-3.6 percent pa).
Employment has been the most resilient across over 65s ( plus 2.3 percent pa), 35 to 39-year-olds (plus 1.7 percent) and 40 to 44-year-olds (plus 1.1 percent pa).
The rise in filled job numbers in primary industries (plus 1.0 percent) from January is positive for regional economies. In the year to March 2024, primary industries made up 24 percent of employment in rural areas and 13 percent in provincial areas.
Recent improvements in commodity prices across dairy, meat, and horticulture should support further increases in employment across the sector.
